BundesligaFull Timedixon-coles-v3-baserate-2026-08-20
Win probabilityhow the model works
FSV Mainz 05DrawPaderborn
68%22%10%
1.5–0.8
Modeled xG
Market consensus · 40 bookmakers1 1.67X 3.902 4.55
implied (vig removed): 56% · 24% · 20%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
1.33
Home xG
Expected goals
0.95
Away xG
Pressure index — avg per minute
20.3
3.5
Peak 91max pressurePeak 36
Top stats
51%Possession49%
1.33Expected goals (xG)0.95
21Total shots10
4Shots on target0
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
