La LigaFull Timedixon-coles-v3-baserate-2026-08-20
Win probabilityhow the model works
ElcheDrawFC Barcelona
20%25%55%
1.0–1.6
Modeled xG
Market consensus · 39 bookmakers1 8.50X 5.602 1.31
implied (vig removed): 11% · 17% · 72%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
0.64
Home xG
Expected goals
3.03
Away xG
Pressure index — avg per minute
9.3
11.6
Peak 57max pressurePeak 59
Top stats
46%Possession54%
0.64Expected goals (xG)3.03
7Total shots11
2Shots on target7
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
