Premier LeagueFull Timeens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
Aston VillaDrawArsenal
20%22%58%
1.1–1.7
Modeled xG
56%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 8 bookmakers1 4.33X 3.732 1.75
implied (vig removed): 22% · 25% · 53%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
0.43
Home xG
Expected goals
1.25
Away xG
Pressure index — avg per minute
4.1
14.3
Peak 69max pressurePeak 68
Top stats
39%Possession61%
0.43Expected goals (xG)1.25
7Total shots7
0Shots on target2
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
