Premier LeagueFull Timedixon-coles-v3-baserate-2026-08-20
Win probabilityhow the model works
Tottenham HotspurDrawNewcastle United
44%23%32%
1.4–1.3
Modeled xG
49%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 8 bookmakers1 2.00X 3.752 3.33
implied (vig removed): 47% · 25% · 28%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
1.28
Home xG
Expected goals
0.94
Away xG
Pressure index — avg per minute
5.9
13.5
Peak 52max pressurePeak 74
Top stats
58%Possession42%
1.28Expected goals (xG)0.94
17Total shots11
6Shots on target2
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
