Fulham vs Crystal Palace — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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Fulham vs Crystal Palace — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Fulham

Home

TS54.3

vs

Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC

Crystal Palace

Away

TS55.5

Win probabilityhow the model works

FulhamDrawCrystal Palace

49%28%23%

1.3–1.0

Modeled xG

61%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

Both teams to score

Market consensus · 43 bookmakers1 2.30X 3.402 3.03

implied (vig removed): 41% · 28% · 31%

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Fulham4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

62.9

Castagne

Crystal Palace3-4-2-1

Fulhamteam news

OUTCairney— Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct

OUTMcNally— Has joined York City on loan for the rest of the season

DOUBTDe Fougerolles— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Crystal Palaceteam news

OUTChadi Riad— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTSarr— Groin injury - Unknown return date

OUTMateta— Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct

OUTCardines— Has joined Bristol City on loan for the rest of the season

OUTUche— has returned to Getafe CF

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Fulham

LLWDL

Form

Crystal Palace

LLLDL

L

Sunderland1–0Away

30 Aug

L

Home1–4Manchester City

28 Aug

L

Home2–3Chelsea

24 Aug

L

Everton2–0Away

22 Aug

W

Home2–0Newcastle United

24 May

L

Home1–2Arsenal

24 May

D

Wolverhampton Wanderers1–1Away

17 May

D

Brentford2–2Away

17 May

L

Home0–1AFC Bournemouth

9 May

L

Manchester City3–0Away

13 May

1W1D3L5–6

0W1D4L4–13

Head to head

Head to Head

2

Fulham wins

4

Draws

2

Crystal Palace wins

8 meetings

1 JanCrystal Palace1–1Fulham 7 DecFulham1–2Crystal Palace 22 FebFulham0–2Crystal Palace 9 NovCrystal Palace0–2Fulham 27 AprFulham1–1Crystal Palace

Who will win?

49%

Fulham

28%

Draw

23%

Crystal Palace

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Venue

StadiumCraven Cottage

LocationLondon

Capacity25,700

Surfacegrass

Kamada

Tomiyasu