Leeds United vs Crystal Palace — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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Leeds United vs Crystal Palace — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Leeds United

Home

TS59.3

vs

Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC

Crystal Palace

Away

TS55.5

Win probabilityhow the model works

Leeds UnitedDrawCrystal Palace

53%26%21%

1.6–1.0

Modeled xG

56%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

Both teams to score

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Leeds United3-4-2-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

64.3?

Rodon

Crystal Palace3-4-2-1

Leeds Unitedteam news

OUTMateo Joseph— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTPerri— Has joined Torino on loan for the rest of the season

OUTBornauw— Has joined Hamburg SV on loan for the rest of the season

OUTHarrison— Has joined New England Revolution permanently

OUTPiroe— Has joined West Ham United on loan for the rest of the season

DOUBTRodon— Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing

DOUBTGruev— Knee injury - 25% chance of playing

Crystal Palaceteam news

OUTChadi Riad— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTSarr— Groin injury - Unknown return date

OUTMateta— Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct

OUTCardines— Has joined Bristol City on loan for the rest of the season

OUTUche— has returned to Getafe CF

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Leeds United

DWLWD

Form

Crystal Palace

LLLDL

D

Home1–1Brentford

30 Aug

L

Home1–4Manchester City

28 Aug

W

Nottingham Forest0–1Away

22 Aug

L

Everton2–0Away

22 Aug

L

West Ham United3–0Away

24 May

L

Home1–2Arsenal

24 May

W

Home1–0Brighton & Hove Albion

17 May

D

Brentford2–2Away

17 May

D

Tottenham Hotspur1–1Away

11 May

L

Manchester City3–0Away

13 May

2W2D1L4–5

0W1D4L4–13

Head to head

Head to Head

1

Leeds United wins

1

Draws

2

Crystal Palace wins

4 meetings

15 MarCrystal Palace0–0Leeds United 20 DecLeeds United4–1Crystal Palace 9 AprLeeds United1–5Crystal Palace 9 OctCrystal Palace2–1Leeds United

Who will win?

53%

Leeds United

26%

Draw

21%

Crystal Palace

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Venue

StadiumElland Road

LocationLeeds

Capacity40,242

Surfacegrass

Kamada

Tomiyasu