Serie AFull Timedixon-coles-v3-baserate-2026-08-20
Win probabilityhow the model works
FiorentinaDrawFrosinone
66%23%11%
1.5–0.8
Modeled xG
42%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Both teams to score
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
2.28
Home xG
Expected goals
1.58
Away xG
Pressure index — avg per minute
15.7
5.9
Peak 100max pressurePeak 57
Top stats
60%Possession40%
2.28Expected goals (xG)1.58
25Total shots12
4Shots on target6
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
