Serie AFull Timeens-lgbm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
JuventusDrawParma
85%12%3%
1.8–0.5
Modeled xG
69%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 6 bookmakers1 1.33X 5.502 7.21
implied (vig removed): 70% · 17% · 13%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
1.64
Home xG
Expected goals
0.32
Away xG
Pressure index — avg per minute
17.6
4.0
Peak 89max pressurePeak 68
Top stats
58%Possession42%
1.64Expected goals (xG)0.32
21Total shots4
6Shots on target3
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
