Champions LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
Borussia DortmundDrawVillarreal
48%26%26%
1.8–1.0
Modeled xG
61%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Borussia Dortmund
WWWLW
Form
Villarreal
LDDWL
W
Home2–0Hamburger SV
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
