Champions LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
Manchester CityDrawSporting CP
61%21%18%
2.3–1.7
Modeled xG
61%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams to score
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1
Manchester City4-2-3-1
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
