Champions LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
RomaDrawReal Madrid
35%25%40%
1.8–1.4
Modeled xG
61%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Roma
WWWWW
Form
Real Madrid
WWWWW
W
Lecce0–4Away
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
