Champions LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
ArsenalDrawReal Madrid
48%25%27%
1.8–1.0
Modeled xG
61%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1
Arsenal4-2-3-1
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
