BundesligaNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
Hamburger SVDrawFSV Mainz 05
26%24%50%
1.4–1.6
Modeled xG
52%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 42 bookmakers1 2.80X 3.582 2.38
implied (vig removed): 34% · 26% · 40%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Hamburger SV
LDWWL
Form
FSV Mainz 05
DWLWL
L
Borussia Dortmund2–0Away
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
