BundesligaNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
Borussia DortmundDrawPaderborn
74%17%9%
2.0–0.8
Modeled xG
61%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 33 bookmakers1 1.22X 6.252 10.00
implied (vig removed): 76% · 15% · 9%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Borussia Dortmund
WWWLW
Form
Paderborn
D
W
Home2–0Hamburger SV
D
FSV Mainz 050–0
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
