BundesligaNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
FC KölnDrawWerder Bremen
50%27%23%
1.8–1.0
Modeled xG
52%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 33 bookmakers1 2.05X 3.602 3.25
implied (vig removed): 45% · 26% · 29%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
FC Köln
WLLDL
Form
Werder Bremen
LLLLD
W
Home3–2TSG Hoffenheim
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
