La LigaNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
ElcheDrawReal Sociedad
38%29%33%
1.4–1.2
Modeled xG
55%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 38 bookmakers1 2.88X 3.402 2.36
implied (vig removed): 33% · 28% · 40%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Elche
LLDDW
Form
Real Sociedad
WLLDL
L
Racing Santander3–2Away
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
