La LigaNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
EspanyolDrawSevilla
39%30%31%
1.2–1.0
Modeled xG
53%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 39 bookmakers1 2.30X 3.202 3.30
implied (vig removed): 41% · 30% · 29%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1
Sevilla3-4-3squad-based
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms