La LigaNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
Real MadridDrawRayo Vallecano
72%17%10%
2.2–1.0
Modeled xG
55%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 29 bookmakers1 1.14X 8.002 16.00
implied (vig removed): 82% · 12% · 6%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Real Madrid
WWWWW
Form
Rayo Vallecano
LDLWW
W
Home4–0Málaga
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
