La LigaNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
VillarrealDrawReal Betis
50%26%24%
1.8–1.1
Modeled xG
55%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 24 bookmakers1 1.82X 3.732 3.73
implied (vig removed): 51% · 25% · 25%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1
Real Betis4-5-1squad-based
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms