Arsenal vs Chelsea — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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Arsenal vs Chelsea — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Arsenal

Home

TS86.3

vs

Sun, 6 Sept 2026, 15:30 UTC

Chelsea

Away

TS63.7

Win probabilityhow the model works

ArsenalDrawChelsea

69%20%11%

2.1–0.8

Modeled xG

55%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Both teams to score

Market consensus · 42 bookmakers1 1.70X 3.782 5.00

implied (vig removed): 56% · 25% · 19%

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Arsenal4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

68.1

White

Chelsea3-4-2-1

Arsenalteam news

OUTJ.Timber— Groin injury - Unknown return date

OUTSaliba— Back injury - Unknown return date

OUTNelson— has departed the club as a free agent.

Chelseateam news

OUTJörgensen— Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season

OUTChalobah— Has joined Como permanently

OUTB.Badiashile— Has joined Napoli on loan for the rest of the season

OUTM.Sarr— Has joined Real Sociedad on loan for the rest of the season

OUTMarc Guiu— Has joined RB Leipzig permanently

DOUBTHenderson— Wrist injury - 75% chance of playing

DOUBTPalestra— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

DOUBTCaicedo— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Arsenal

WWWWW

Form

Chelsea

WWLWD

W

Aston Villa0–1Away

31 Aug

W

Home4–3Brighton & Hove Albion

30 Aug

W

Home3–0Coventry City

21 Aug

W

Fulham2–3Away

24 Aug

W

Crystal Palace1–2Away

24 May

L

Sunderland2–1Away

24 May

W

Home1–0Burnley

18 May

W

Home2–1Tottenham Hotspur

19 May

W

West Ham United0–1Away

10 May

D

Liverpool1–1Away

9 May

5W0D0L8–1

3W1D1L11–9

Head to head

Head to Head

5

Arsenal wins

3

Draws

0

Chelsea wins

8 meetings

1 MarArsenal2–1Chelsea 30 NovChelsea1–1Arsenal 16 MarArsenal1–0Chelsea 10 NovChelsea1–1Arsenal 23 AprArsenal5–0Chelsea

Who will win?

69%

Arsenal

20%

Draw

11%

Chelsea

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

60.8

Lavia

Colwill