Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Brighton & Hove Albion

Home

Brighton & Hove Albion

TS59.1

vs

Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC

Leeds United

Away

TS59.3

Win probabilityhow the model works

Brighton & Hove AlbionDrawLeeds United

55%25%20%

1.6–1.1

Modeled xG

55%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Both teams to score

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Brighton & Hove Albion4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

64.7

Wieffer

Leeds United3-4-2-1

Brighton & Hove Albionteam news

OUTMitoma— Hamstring injury - Unknown return date

OUTMinteh— Leg injury - Expected back 28 Nov

OUTTzimas— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTFerguson— Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct

OUTBuonanotte— Has joined Elche on loan for the rest of the season

OUTHowell— Has joined Leicester City on loan for the rest of the season

OUTWatson— Has joined Leicester City on loan for the rest of the season

DOUBTHinshelwood— Unspecified injury - 50% chance of playing

Leeds Unitedteam news

OUTMateo Joseph— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTPerri— Has joined Torino on loan for the rest of the season

OUTBornauw— Has joined Hamburg SV on loan for the rest of the season

OUTHarrison— Has joined New England Revolution permanently

OUTPiroe— Has joined West Ham United on loan for the rest of the season

DOUBTRodon— Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing

DOUBTGruev— Knee injury - 25% chance of playing

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Brighton & Hove Albion

LWWDL

Form

Leeds United

DWLWD

L

Chelsea4–3Away

30 Aug

D

Home1–1Brentford

30 Aug

W

Home4–0Tromsø

27 Aug

W

Nottingham Forest0–1Away

22 Aug

W

Home4–0Aston Villa

23 Aug

L

West Ham United3–0Away

24 May

D

Tromsø0–0Away

20 Aug

W

Home1–0Brighton & Hove Albion

17 May

L

Home0–3Manchester United

24 May

D

Tottenham Hotspur1–1Away

11 May

2W1D2L11–7

2W2D1L4–5

Head to head

Head to Head

2

Brighton & Hove Albion wins

1

Draws

1

Leeds United wins

4 meetings

17 MayLeeds United1–0Brighton & Hove Albion 1 NovBrighton & Hove Albion3–0Leeds United 11 MarLeeds United2–2Brighton & Hove Albion 27 AugBrighton & Hove Albion1–0Leeds United

Who will win?

55%

Brighton & Hove Albion

25%

Draw

20%

Leeds United

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Venue

StadiumThe American Express Community Stadium

LocationFalmer

Capacity31,876

Surfacegrass

Ampadu

64.1

Muharemović