Everton vs Manchester United — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Skip to content

Sign In Get Started

Founding Beta

Tactico is built around Player & Club Data, Match Intelligence, Predictive Modeling, and Research & Visualization — understand the system, not the surface.

Core

Club football as the permanent base

Launch

The 26/27 season, priced in public

Transparency

Public roadmap and visible system progress

The standard

Methodology →

Every score is deterministic, evidence-gated, and confidence-labelled. Football intelligence should be explainable — not a black box with a number on the front. The methodology is part of the product, not a legal page.

Deterministic scoringFree during betaPublication gate active

Core

Players Clubs Matches World Cup Archive Roadmap

Product

Compare Rankings Forecast Methodology Membership Intelligence Hub Predictive Modeling Market & Value

Legal

Privacy Terms© 2026 Tactico SportsPowered bySPORTMONKS

Tactico Sports provides statistics, analysis, and opinion for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site is betting, financial, or professional advice. Projections and picks are probabilistic opinions and may be wrong. Odds referenced may change and should be verified with the source. 21+ where applicable. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Tactico Sports currently has no sportsbook partnerships or affiliate relationships; any future relationship will be clearly disclosed. Tactico Sports (tacticosports.com) is a football data and AI analysis platform and is unrelated to tacticosport.com, a separate grassroots sports organisation. Data sources · Terms · Privacy

Everton vs Manchester United — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Everton

Home

TS55.5

vs

Sun, 6 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC

Manchester United

Away

Manchester United

TS58.9

Win probabilityhow the model works

EvertonDrawManchester United

27%24%49%

1.4–1.6

Modeled xG

60%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Both teams to score

Market consensus · 43 bookmakers1 3.20X 3.502 2.15

implied (vig removed): 29% · 27% · 44%

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Everton4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

57.1

Röhl

Manchester United4-2-3-1

Evertonteam news

OUTNørgaard— Groin injury - Unknown return date

OUTAznou— Has joined Malaga on loan for the rest of the season

Manchester Unitedteam news

OUTBaleba— Ankle injury - Expected back 19 Sep

OUTHeaton— Hamstring injury - Unknown return date

OUTDe Ligt— Back injury - Unknown return date

OUTAmad— Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

OUTUgarte— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTBayindir— Has joined Celta Vigo on loan for the rest of the season

OUTFredricson— Has joined Lausanne-Sport permanently

OUTCollyer— Has joined West Brom permanently

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Everton

DWLLD

Form

Manchester United

WLWWD

D

AFC Bournemouth1–1Away

29 Aug

W

Home5–2Ipswich Town

30 Aug

W

Home2–0Crystal Palace

22 Aug

L

Hull City2–0Away

22 Aug

L

Tottenham Hotspur1–0Away

24 May

W

Brighton & Hove Albion0–3Away

24 May

L

Home1–3Sunderland

17 May

W

Home3–2Nottingham Forest

17 May

D

Crystal Palace2–2Away

10 May

D

Sunderland0–0Away

9 May

1W2D2L6–7

3W1D1L11–6

Head to head

Head to Head

1

Everton wins

1

Draws

6

Manchester United wins

8 meetings

23 FebEverton0–1Manchester United 24 NovManchester United0–1Everton 22 FebEverton2–2Manchester United 1 DecManchester United4–0Everton 9 MarManchester United2–0Everton

Who will win?

27%

Everton

24%

Draw

49%

Manchester United

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Venue

StadiumHill Dickinson Stadium

Capacity52,888

Surfacegrass

Martinez