Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
Hull CityDrawAston Villa
32%29%39%
1.1–1.4
Modeled xG
52%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 43 bookmakers1 4.00X 3.602 1.88
implied (vig removed): 24% · 26% · 50%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1
Hull City5-4-1
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
