Manchester City vs Coventry City — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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Manchester City vs Coventry City — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Manchester City

Home

Manchester City

TS82.6

vs

Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC

Coventry City

Away

TS36.7

Win probabilityhow the model works

Manchester CityDrawCoventry City

81%13%5%

2.3–0.8

Modeled xG

59%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

Both teams to score

Market consensus · 43 bookmakers1 1.18X 7.802 14.00

implied (vig removed): 81% · 12% · 7%

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Manchester City4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

72.6

Lewis

Coventry City4-2-3-1

Manchester Cityteam news

OUTDoku— Calf injury - Expected back 5 Sep

OUTAlleyne— Has joined Burnley on loan for the rest of the season

OUTRodrigo— Has joined Barcelona permanently

OUTReijnders— Has joined Al Qadsiah permanently

OUTPhillips— Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season

DOUBTMatheus N.— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Coventry Cityteam news

OUTKesler-Hayden— Hamstring injury - Unknown return date

OUTWoolfenden— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTWright— Thigh injury - Unknown return date

OUTBrau— Has joined Academico de Viseu on loan for the rest of the season

OUTAndrews— Has joined Oxford United on loan for the rest of the season

OUTMarkelo— Has joined Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai permanently

OUTBassette— Has joined KVC Westerlo on loan for the rest of the season

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Manchester City

WWLDW

Form

Coventry City

LL

W

Crystal Palace1–4Away

28 Aug

L

Home0–1Hull City

29 Aug

W

Home2–1AFC Bournemouth

23 Aug

L

Arsenal3–0Away

21 Aug

L

Home1–2Aston Villa

24 May

D

AFC Bournemouth1–1Away

19 May

W

Home3–0Crystal Palace

13 May

3W1D1L11–5

0W0D2L0–4

Who will win?

81%

Manchester City

13%

Draw

5%

Coventry City

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Amenda