Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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Tactico Sports provides statistics, analysis, and opinion for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site is betting, financial, or professional advice. Projections and picks are probabilistic opinions and may be wrong. Odds referenced may change and should be verified with the source. 21+ where applicable. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Tactico Sports currently has no sportsbook partnerships or affiliate relationships; any future relationship will be clearly disclosed. Tactico Sports (tacticosports.com) is a football data and AI analysis platform and is unrelated to tacticosport.com, a separate grassroots sports organisation. Data sources · Terms · Privacy

Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Newcastle United

Home

Newcastle United

TS64.1

vs

Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 11:30 UTC

AFC Bournemouth

Away

AFC Bournemouth

TS59.1

Win probabilityhow the model works

Newcastle UnitedDrawAFC Bournemouth

31%25%44%

1.4–1.7

Modeled xG

56%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Both teams to score

Market consensus · 43 bookmakers1 2.15X 3.652 3.10

implied (vig removed): 44% · 26% · 30%

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Newcastle United4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

65.3

Dedić

AFC Bournemouth4-2-3-1

Newcastle Unitedteam news

OUTBurn— Ankle injury - Expected back 14 Sep

OUTLivramento— Calf injury - Unknown return date

OUTJoelinton— Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

OUTOsula— Foot injury - Unknown return date

OUTA.Murphy— Has joined FC Kaiserslautern on loan for the rest of the season

AFC Bournemouthteam news

OUTMilosavljević— Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

OUTJ.Araujo— Thigh injury - Unknown return date

OUTAdli— Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

OUTKroupi.Jr— Foot injury - Unknown return date

OUTDennis— Has joined MK Dons permanently

OUTEnes Ünal— Has joined Getafe permanently

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Newcastle United

WDLWD

Form

AFC Bournemouth

DLDDW

W

Tottenham Hotspur0–2Away

29 Aug

D

Home1–1Everton

29 Aug

D

Home2–2Liverpool

23 Aug

L

Manchester City2–1Away

23 Aug

L

Fulham2–0Away

24 May

D

Nottingham Forest1–1Away

24 May

W

Home3–1West Ham United

17 May

D

Home1–1Manchester City

19 May

D

Nottingham Forest1–1Away

10 May

W

Fulham0–1Away

9 May

2W2D1L8–6

1W3D1L5–5

Head to head

Head to Head

0

Newcastle United wins

5

Draws

3

AFC Bournemouth wins

8 meetings

18 AprNewcastle United1–2AFC Bournemouth 21 SeptAFC Bournemouth0–0Newcastle United 18 JanNewcastle United1–4AFC Bournemouth 25 AugAFC Bournemouth1–1Newcastle United 17 FebNewcastle United2–2AFC Bournemouth

Who will win?

31%

Newcastle United

25%

Draw

44%

AFC Bournemouth

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Venue

StadiumSt. James' Park

LocationNewcastle upon Tyne

Capacity52,409

Surfacegrass