AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

AFC Bournemouth

Home

AFC Bournemouth

TS59.1

vs

Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC

Brentford

Away

TS53.4

Win probabilityhow the model works

AFC BournemouthDrawBrentford

46%27%28%

1.8–1.2

Modeled xG

55%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

Both teams to score

Market consensus · 30 bookmakers1 2.55X 3.502 2.60

implied (vig removed): 37% · 27% · 36%

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

AFC Bournemouth4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

56.9

Smith

Brentford4-2-3-1

AFC Bournemouthteam news

OUTMilosavljević— Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

OUTJ.Araujo— Thigh injury - Unknown return date

OUTAdli— Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

OUTKroupi.Jr— Foot injury - Unknown return date

OUTDennis— Has joined MK Dons permanently

OUTEnes Ünal— Has joined Getafe permanently

Brentfordteam news

OUTVan den Berg— Groin injury - Unknown return date

OUTMilambo— Knee injury - Unknown return date

DOUBTJensen— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

AFC Bournemouth

DLDDW

Form

Brentford

DWDDL

D

Home1–1Everton

29 Aug

D

Leeds United1–1Away

30 Aug

L

Manchester City2–1Away

23 Aug

W

Home3–0Tottenham Hotspur

22 Aug

D

Nottingham Forest1–1Away

24 May

D

Liverpool1–1Away

24 May

D

Home1–1Manchester City

19 May

D

Home2–2Crystal Palace

17 May

W

Fulham0–1Away

9 May

L

Manchester City3–0Away

9 May

1W3D1L5–5

1W3D1L7–7

Head to head

Head to Head

0

AFC Bournemouth wins

3

Draws

5

Brentford wins

8 meetings

3 MarAFC Bournemouth0–0Brentford 27 DecBrentford4–1AFC Bournemouth 15 MarAFC Bournemouth1–2Brentford 9 NovBrentford3–2AFC Bournemouth 11 MayAFC Bournemouth1–2Brentford

Who will win?

46%

AFC Bournemouth

27%

Draw

28%

Brentford

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Venue

StadiumVitality Stadium

LocationBournemouth

Capacity11,700

Surfacegrass

Collins