Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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Tactico Sports provides statistics, analysis, and opinion for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site is betting, financial, or professional advice. Projections and picks are probabilistic opinions and may be wrong. Odds referenced may change and should be verified with the source. 21+ where applicable. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Tactico Sports currently has no sportsbook partnerships or affiliate relationships; any future relationship will be clearly disclosed. Tactico Sports (tacticosports.com) is a football data and AI analysis platform and is unrelated to tacticosport.com, a separate grassroots sports organisation. Data sources · Terms · Privacy

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Aston Villa

Home

TS65.2

vs

Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC

Nottingham Forest

Away

Nottingham Forest

TS53.5

Win probabilityhow the model works

Aston VillaDrawNottingham Forest

40%27%32%

1.6–1.3

Modeled xG

56%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

Both teams to score

Market consensus · 33 bookmakers1 1.95X 3.602 3.70

implied (vig removed): 48% · 26% · 25%

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Aston Villa4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

65.7

Cash

George Hemmings

Nottingham Forest3-4-2-1

Aston Villateam news

OUTOnana— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTManzambi— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTMadjo— Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

SUSPGomes— Suspended until 19 Sep

OUTDigne— Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently

OUTNedeljkovic— Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season

OUTIling Jr— Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season

OUTWatkins— Has joined Al Hilal permanently

Nottingham Forestteam news

OUTSavona— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTI.Sangaré— Calf injury - Unknown return date

OUTBindon— Has joined Charlton Athletic on loan for the rest of the season

OUTHutchinson— Has joined AC Milan on loan for the rest of the season

OUTBakwa— Has joined Lille on loan for the rest of the season

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Aston Villa

LLLWW

Form

Nottingham Forest

DLDLD

L

Home0–1Arsenal

31 Aug

D

Liverpool2–2Away

29 Aug

L

Brighton & Hove Albion4–0Away

23 Aug

L

Home0–1Leeds United

22 Aug

L

Paris Saint Germain2–1Away

12 Aug

D

Home1–1AFC Bournemouth

24 May

W

Manchester City1–2Away

24 May

L

Manchester United3–2Away

17 May

W

Home4–2Liverpool

15 May

D

Home1–1Newcastle United

10 May

2W0D3L7–10

0W3D2L6–8

Head to head

Head to Head

4

Aston Villa wins

2

Draws

2

Nottingham Forest wins

8 meetings

12 AprNottingham Forest1–1Aston Villa 3 JanAston Villa3–1Nottingham Forest 5 AprAston Villa2–1Nottingham Forest 14 DecNottingham Forest2–1Aston Villa 24 FebAston Villa4–2Nottingham Forest

Who will win?

40%

Aston Villa

27%

Draw

32%

Nottingham Forest

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Venue

StadiumVilla Park

LocationBirmingham

Capacity42,640

Surfacegrass

N.Williams

Murillo