Chelsea vs Hull City — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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Chelsea vs Hull City — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Chelsea

Home

TS63.7

vs

Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC

Hull City

Away

TS41.7

Win probabilityhow the model works

ChelseaDrawHull City

58%25%17%

1.7–0.9

Modeled xG

60%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

Both teams to score

Market consensus · 33 bookmakers1 1.23X 6.252 11.00

implied (vig removed): 76% · 15% · 9%

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Chelsea3-4-2-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

69.7

Fofana

Hull City5-4-1

Chelseateam news

OUTJörgensen— Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season

OUTChalobah— Has joined Como permanently

OUTB.Badiashile— Has joined Napoli on loan for the rest of the season

OUTM.Sarr— Has joined Real Sociedad on loan for the rest of the season

OUTMarc Guiu— Has joined RB Leipzig permanently

DOUBTHenderson— Wrist injury - 75% chance of playing

DOUBTPalestra— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

DOUBTCaicedo— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Hull Cityteam news

OUTButland— Arm injury - Unknown return date

OUTHughes— Groin injury - Unknown return date

OUTJacob— Hip injury - Expected back 5 Sep

OUTMatazo— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTZambrano— Thigh injury - Unknown return date

OUTGyabi— Thigh injury - Unknown return date

OUTGelhardt— Ankle injury - Expected back 5 Sep

OUTCartwright— Has joined Grimsby Town on loan for the rest of the season

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Chelsea

WWLWD

Form

Hull City

WW

W

Home4–3Brighton & Hove Albion

30 Aug

W

Coventry City0–1Away

29 Aug

W

Fulham2–3Away

24 Aug

W

Home2–0Manchester United

22 Aug

L

Sunderland2–1Away

24 May

W

Home2–1Tottenham Hotspur

19 May

D

Liverpool1–1Away

9 May

3W1D1L11–9

2W0D0L3–0

Who will win?

58%

Chelsea

25%

Draw

17%

Hull City

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Venue

StadiumStamford Bridge

LocationLondon

Capacity40,341

Surfacegrass

58.9

Egan