Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
Leeds UnitedDrawNewcastle United
47%27%27%
1.7–1.1
Modeled xG
56%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 31 bookmakers1 2.48X 3.502 2.65
implied (vig removed): 38% · 27% · 35%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1
Leeds United3-4-2-1
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
