Liverpool vs Fulham — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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Liverpool vs Fulham — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Liverpool

Home

TS80.0

vs

Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC

Fulham

Away

TS54.3

Win probabilityhow the model works

LiverpoolDrawFulham

55%25%20%

1.8–1.0

Modeled xG

55%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Both teams to score

Market consensus · 33 bookmakers1 1.45X 4.752 6.00

implied (vig removed): 65% · 20% · 16%

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Liverpool4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

70.4

Frimpong

Fulham4-2-3-1

Liverpoolteam news

OUTJaros— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTGomez— Muscular injury - Unknown return date

OUTBradley— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTLeoni— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTChiesa— Back injury - Unknown return date

OUTEkitiké— Achilles injury - Unknown return date

OUTDanns— Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

OUTPecsi— Has joined TSV Hartberg on loan for the rest of the season

Fulhamteam news

OUTCairney— Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct

OUTMcNally— Has joined York City on loan for the rest of the season

DOUBTDe Fougerolles— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Liverpool

DDDLD

Form

Fulham

LLWDL

D

Home2–2Nottingham Forest

29 Aug

L

Sunderland1–0Away

30 Aug

D

Newcastle United2–2Away

23 Aug

L

Home2–3Chelsea

24 Aug

D

Home1–1Brentford

24 May

W

Home2–0Newcastle United

24 May

L

Aston Villa4–2Away

15 May

D

Wolverhampton Wanderers1–1Away

17 May

D

Home1–1Chelsea

9 May

L

Home0–1AFC Bournemouth

9 May

0W4D1L8–10

1W1D3L5–6

Head to head

Head to Head

4

Liverpool wins

3

Draws

1

Fulham wins

8 meetings

11 AprLiverpool2–0Fulham 4 JanFulham2–2Liverpool 6 AprFulham3–2Liverpool 14 DecLiverpool2–2Fulham 21 AprFulham1–3Liverpool

Who will win?

55%

Liverpool

25%

Draw

20%

Fulham

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built