Manchester United vs Manchester City — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Skip to content

Sign In Get Started

Founding Beta

Tactico is built around Player & Club Data, Match Intelligence, Predictive Modeling, and Research & Visualization — understand the system, not the surface.

Core

Club football as the permanent base

Launch

The 26/27 season, priced in public

Transparency

Public roadmap and visible system progress

The standard

Methodology →

Every score is deterministic, evidence-gated, and confidence-labelled. Football intelligence should be explainable — not a black box with a number on the front. The methodology is part of the product, not a legal page.

Deterministic scoringFree during betaPublication gate active

Core

Players Clubs Matches World Cup Archive Roadmap

Product

Compare Rankings Forecast Methodology Membership Intelligence Hub Predictive Modeling Market & Value

Legal

Privacy Terms© 2026 Tactico SportsPowered bySPORTMONKS

Tactico Sports provides statistics, analysis, and opinion for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site is betting, financial, or professional advice. Projections and picks are probabilistic opinions and may be wrong. Odds referenced may change and should be verified with the source. 21+ where applicable. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Tactico Sports currently has no sportsbook partnerships or affiliate relationships; any future relationship will be clearly disclosed. Tactico Sports (tacticosports.com) is a football data and AI analysis platform and is unrelated to tacticosport.com, a separate grassroots sports organisation. Data sources · Terms · Privacy

Manchester United vs Manchester City — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Manchester United

Home

Manchester United

TS58.9

vs

Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 15:30 UTC

Manchester City

Away

Manchester City

TS82.6

Win probabilityhow the model works

Manchester UnitedDrawManchester City

29%23%48%

1.5–1.7

Modeled xG

61%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Both teams to score

Market consensus · 31 bookmakers1 3.00X 3.852 2.11

implied (vig removed): 31% · 24% · 44%

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Manchester United4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

64.5

Mazraoui

Manchester City4-2-3-1

Manchester Unitedteam news

OUTBaleba— Ankle injury - Expected back 19 Sep

OUTHeaton— Hamstring injury - Unknown return date

OUTDe Ligt— Back injury - Unknown return date

OUTAmad— Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

OUTUgarte— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTBayindir— Has joined Celta Vigo on loan for the rest of the season

OUTFredricson— Has joined Lausanne-Sport permanently

OUTCollyer— Has joined West Brom permanently

Manchester Cityteam news

OUTDoku— Calf injury - Expected back 5 Sep

OUTAlleyne— Has joined Burnley on loan for the rest of the season

OUTRodrigo— Has joined Barcelona permanently

OUTReijnders— Has joined Al Qadsiah permanently

OUTPhillips— Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season

DOUBTMatheus N.— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Manchester United

WLWWD

Form

Manchester City

WWLDW

W

Home5–2Ipswich Town

30 Aug

W

Crystal Palace1–4Away

28 Aug

L

Hull City2–0Away

22 Aug

W

Home2–1AFC Bournemouth

23 Aug

W

Brighton & Hove Albion0–3Away

24 May

L

Home1–2Aston Villa

24 May

W

Home3–2Nottingham Forest

17 May

D

AFC Bournemouth1–1Away

19 May

D

Sunderland0–0Away

9 May

W

Home3–0Crystal Palace

13 May

3W1D1L11–6

3W1D1L11–5

Head to head

Head to Head

3

Manchester United wins

1

Draws

4

Manchester City wins

8 meetings

17 JanManchester United2–0Manchester City 14 SeptManchester City3–0Manchester United 6 AprManchester United0–0Manchester City 15 DecManchester City1–2Manchester United 3 MarManchester City3–1Manchester United

Who will win?

29%

Manchester United

23%

Draw

48%

Manchester City

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Guéhi