Sunderland vs Arsenal — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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Tactico Sports provides statistics, analysis, and opinion for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site is betting, financial, or professional advice. Projections and picks are probabilistic opinions and may be wrong. Odds referenced may change and should be verified with the source. 21+ where applicable. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Tactico Sports currently has no sportsbook partnerships or affiliate relationships; any future relationship will be clearly disclosed. Tactico Sports (tacticosports.com) is a football data and AI analysis platform and is unrelated to tacticosport.com, a separate grassroots sports organisation. Data sources · Terms · Privacy

Sunderland vs Arsenal — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Sunderland

Home

TS56.6

vs

Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC

Arsenal

Away

TS86.3

Win probabilityhow the model works

SunderlandDrawArsenal

14%22%64%

0.8–1.4

Modeled xG

61%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

Both teams to score

Market consensus · 33 bookmakers1 6.50X 4.052 1.50

implied (vig removed): 14% · 23% · 62%

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Sunderland4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

59.5

Meunier

Arsenal4-2-3-1

Sunderlandteam news

OUTAdingra— Ankle injury - Unknown return date

OUTPatterson— Has joined Wrexham permanently

OUTSeelt— Has joined Swansea City on loan for the rest of the season

OUTHjelde— Has joined KV Mechelen on loan for the rest of the season

OUTMasuaku— Has joined Konyaspor permanently

DOUBTDiarra— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Arsenalteam news

OUTJ.Timber— Groin injury - Unknown return date

OUTSaliba— Back injury - Unknown return date

OUTNelson— has departed the club as a free agent.

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Sunderland

WLWWD

Form

Arsenal

WWWWW

W

Home1–0Fulham

30 Aug

W

Aston Villa0–1Away

31 Aug

L

Ipswich Town2–1Away

22 Aug

W

Home3–0Coventry City

21 Aug

W

Home2–1Chelsea

24 May

W

Crystal Palace1–2Away

24 May

W

Everton1–3Away

17 May

W

Home1–0Burnley

18 May

D

Home0–0Manchester United

9 May

W

West Ham United0–1Away

10 May

3W1D1L7–4

5W0D0L8–1

Head to head

Head to Head

0

Sunderland wins

1

Draws

1

Arsenal wins

2 meetings

7 FebArsenal3–0Sunderland 8 NovSunderland2–2Arsenal

Who will win?

14%

Sunderland

22%

Draw

64%

Arsenal

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Gabriel