Brentford vs Chelsea — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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Brentford vs Chelsea — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Brentford

Home

TS53.4

vs

Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC

Chelsea

Away

TS63.7

Win probabilityhow the model works

BrentfordDrawChelsea

52%25%23%

1.9–1.3

Modeled xG

60%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Both teams to score

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Brentford4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

66.3

Kayode

Chelsea3-4-2-1

Brentfordteam news

OUTVan den Berg— Groin injury - Unknown return date

OUTMilambo— Knee injury - Unknown return date

DOUBTJensen— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Chelseateam news

OUTJörgensen— Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season

OUTChalobah— Has joined Como permanently

OUTB.Badiashile— Has joined Napoli on loan for the rest of the season

OUTM.Sarr— Has joined Real Sociedad on loan for the rest of the season

OUTMarc Guiu— Has joined RB Leipzig permanently

DOUBTHenderson— Wrist injury - 75% chance of playing

DOUBTPalestra— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

DOUBTCaicedo— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Brentford

DWDDL

Form

Chelsea

WWLWD

D

Leeds United1–1Away

30 Aug

W

Home4–3Brighton & Hove Albion

30 Aug

W

Home3–0Tottenham Hotspur

22 Aug

W

Fulham2–3Away

24 Aug

D

Liverpool1–1Away

24 May

L

Sunderland2–1Away

24 May

D

Home2–2Crystal Palace

17 May

W

Home2–1Tottenham Hotspur

19 May

L

Manchester City3–0Away

9 May

D

Liverpool1–1Away

9 May

1W3D1L7–7

3W1D1L11–9

Head to head

Head to Head

2

Brentford wins

4

Draws

2

Chelsea wins

8 meetings

17 JanChelsea2–0Brentford 13 SeptBrentford2–2Chelsea 6 AprBrentford0–0Chelsea 15 DecChelsea2–1Brentford 2 MarBrentford2–2Chelsea

Who will win?

52%

Brentford

25%

Draw

23%

Chelsea

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Venue

StadiumGtech Community Stadium

LocationBrentford

Capacity17,250

Surfacegrass

64.7

Lavia

Colwill