Fulham vs Manchester United — Win Probability, Form & H2H

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Tactico Sports provides statistics, analysis, and opinion for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site is betting, financial, or professional advice. Projections and picks are probabilistic opinions and may be wrong. Odds referenced may change and should be verified with the source. 21+ where applicable. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Tactico Sports currently has no sportsbook partnerships or affiliate relationships; any future relationship will be clearly disclosed. Tactico Sports (tacticosports.com) is a football data and AI analysis platform and is unrelated to tacticosport.com, a separate grassroots sports organisation. Data sources · Terms · Privacy

Fulham vs Manchester United — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Fulham

Home

TS54.3

vs

Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 15:30 UTC

Manchester United

Away

Manchester United

TS58.9

Win probabilityhow the model works

FulhamDrawManchester United

24%23%52%

1.1–1.4

Modeled xG

61%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Both teams to score

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Fulham4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

62.5

Castagne

Manchester United4-2-3-1

Fulhamteam news

OUTCairney— Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct

OUTMcNally— Has joined York City on loan for the rest of the season

DOUBTDe Fougerolles— Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Manchester Unitedteam news

OUTBaleba— Ankle injury - Expected back 19 Sep

OUTHeaton— Hamstring injury - Unknown return date

OUTDe Ligt— Back injury - Unknown return date

OUTAmad— Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

OUTUgarte— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTBayindir— Has joined Celta Vigo on loan for the rest of the season

OUTFredricson— Has joined Lausanne-Sport permanently

OUTCollyer— Has joined West Brom permanently

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Fulham

LLWDL

Form

Manchester United

WLWWD

L

Sunderland1–0Away

30 Aug

W

Home5–2Ipswich Town

30 Aug

L

Home2–3Chelsea

24 Aug

L

Hull City2–0Away

22 Aug

W

Home2–0Newcastle United

24 May

W

Brighton & Hove Albion0–3Away

24 May

D

Wolverhampton Wanderers1–1Away

17 May

W

Home3–2Nottingham Forest

17 May

L

Home0–1AFC Bournemouth

9 May

D

Sunderland0–0Away

9 May

1W1D3L5–6

3W1D1L11–6

Head to head

Head to Head

1

Fulham wins

1

Draws

6

Manchester United wins

8 meetings

1 FebManchester United3–2Fulham 24 AugFulham1–1Manchester United 26 JanFulham0–1Manchester United 16 AugManchester United1–0Fulham 24 FebManchester United1–2Fulham

Who will win?

24%

Fulham

23%

Draw

52%

Manchester United

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built

Venue

StadiumCraven Cottage

LocationLondon

Capacity25,700

Surfacegrass

Martinez