Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Skip to content

Sign In Get Started

Founding Beta

Tactico is built around Player & Club Data, Match Intelligence, Predictive Modeling, and Research & Visualization — understand the system, not the surface.

Core

Club football as the permanent base

Launch

The 26/27 season, priced in public

Transparency

Public roadmap and visible system progress

The standard

Methodology →

Every score is deterministic, evidence-gated, and confidence-labelled. Football intelligence should be explainable — not a black box with a number on the front. The methodology is part of the product, not a legal page.

Deterministic scoringFree during betaPublication gate active

Core

Players Clubs Matches World Cup Archive Roadmap

Product

Compare Rankings Forecast Methodology Membership Intelligence Hub Predictive Modeling Market & Value

Legal

Privacy Terms© 2026 Tactico SportsPowered bySPORTMONKS

Tactico Sports provides statistics, analysis, and opinion for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site is betting, financial, or professional advice. Projections and picks are probabilistic opinions and may be wrong. Odds referenced may change and should be verified with the source. 21+ where applicable. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Tactico Sports currently has no sportsbook partnerships or affiliate relationships; any future relationship will be clearly disclosed. Tactico Sports (tacticosports.com) is a football data and AI analysis platform and is unrelated to tacticosport.com, a separate grassroots sports organisation. Data sources · Terms · Privacy

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa — Win Probability, Form & H2H

Premier LeagueNot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1

Tottenham Hotspur

Home

Tottenham Hotspur

TS56.0

vs

Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 11:30 UTC

Aston Villa

Away

TS65.2

Win probabilityhow the model works

Tottenham HotspurDrawAston Villa

41%29%30%

1.2–1.3

Modeled xG

59%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Both teams to score

Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.

Projected lineupsfq-xi-v1.1

Tottenham Hotspur4-2-3-1

← All matches Match forecasts Compare these clubs

Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms

63.5

Gray

Aston Villa4-2-3-1

George Hemmings

Tottenham Hotspurteam news

OUTXavi— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTOdobert— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTKulusevski— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTVicario— Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season

OUTRomero— Has joined Atletico Madrid permanently

OUTSpence— Has joined Internazionale permanently

OUTPhillips— Has joined Middlesbrough permanently

OUTSouza— Has joined FC Porto on loan for the rest of the season

Aston Villateam news

OUTOnana— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTManzambi— Knee injury - Unknown return date

OUTMadjo— Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

SUSPGomes— Suspended until 19 Sep

OUTDigne— Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently

OUTNedeljkovic— Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season

OUTIling Jr— Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season

OUTWatkins— Has joined Al Hilal permanently

Projected from the last 5 real team sheets, the current squad, and availability from the official FPL feed (synced 2 Sept) — not confirmed team news. Injured, suspended, and departed players are excluded; ? = flagged doubtful; dashed ring = squad-depth fill.

Badge = projected Tactico Match Rating (fq-mr-v1): player score + form + opponent strength + venue. Dots = starts in those sheets.

Recent form

Form

Tottenham Hotspur

LLWLD

Form

Aston Villa

LLLWW

L

Home0–2Newcastle United

29 Aug

L

Home0–1Arsenal

31 Aug

L

Brentford3–0Away

22 Aug

L

Brighton & Hove Albion4–0Away

23 Aug

W

Home1–0Everton

24 May

L

Paris Saint Germain2–1Away

12 Aug

L

Chelsea2–1Away

19 May

W

Manchester City1–2Away

24 May

D

Home1–1Leeds United

11 May

W

Home4–2Liverpool

15 May

1W1D3L3–8

2W0D3L7–10

Head to head

Head to Head

3

Tottenham Hotspur wins

0

Draws

5

Aston Villa wins

8 meetings

3 MayAston Villa1–2Tottenham Hotspur 19 OctTottenham Hotspur1–2Aston Villa 16 MayAston Villa2–0Tottenham Hotspur 3 NovTottenham Hotspur4–1Aston Villa 10 MarAston Villa0–4Tottenham Hotspur

Who will win?

41%

Tottenham Hotspur

29%

Draw

30%

Aston Villa

Our model's own number for this match. How it's built