Ligue 1Not Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
LensDrawLorient
66%21%14%
2.2–1.2
Modeled xG
55%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 41 bookmakers1 1.48X 4.502 6.25
implied (vig removed): 64% · 21% · 15%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Lens
LWWLW
Form
Lorient
LDLWD
L
Strasbourg2–1Away
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
