Ligue 1Not Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
Olympique MarseilleDrawParis
40%27%33%
1.4–1.1
Modeled xG
61%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 41 bookmakers1 1.75X 3.902 4.20
implied (vig removed): 54% · 24% · 22%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Olympique Marseille
LWWWL
Form
Paris
WDWLW
L
Monaco2–0Away
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
