Ligue 1Not Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
TroyesDrawStrasbourg
31%30%39%
1.1–1.2
Modeled xG
56%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 41 bookmakers1 3.05X 3.352 2.26
implied (vig removed): 31% · 28% · 41%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Troyes
WDDLD
Form
Strasbourg
WLWWD
W
Lorient1–2Away
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
