Ligue 1Not Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
LorientDrawToulouse
41%30%29%
1.6–1.0
Modeled xG
56%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 31 bookmakers1 2.50X 3.202 2.75
implied (vig removed): 37% · 29% · 34%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Lorient
LDLWD
Form
Toulouse
DLDWW
L
Home1–2Troyes
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
