Ligue 1Not Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
ParisDrawOlympique Lyonnais
48%26%26%
1.7–1.0
Modeled xG
60%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 30 bookmakers1 2.63X 3.502 2.45
implied (vig removed): 35% · 27% · 38%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Paris
WDWLW
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
DLWDL
W
Home3–0Nice
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
