Serie ANot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
BolognaDrawSassuolo
50%28%22%
1.6–0.9
Modeled xG
55%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 42 bookmakers1 2.00X 3.402 3.80
implied (vig removed): 47% · 28% · 25%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Bologna
LLDWW
Form
Sassuolo
WLLLL
L
Atalanta1–0Away
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
