Serie ANot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
InterDrawNapoli
34%24%42%
2.0–1.2
Modeled xG
55%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 42 bookmakers1 1.65X 3.752 5.40
implied (vig removed): 57% · 25% · 18%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Inter
WWDDW
Form
Napoli
LWWWL
W
Cagliari0–1Away
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
