Serie ANot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
JuventusDrawAC Milan
66%21%13%
1.9–0.8
Modeled xG
55%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 42 bookmakers1 2.09X 3.302 3.60
implied (vig removed): 45% · 29% · 26%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Juventus
WWDLW
Form
AC Milan
WWLWL
W
Home2–0Parma
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
