Serie ANot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
ParmaDrawMonza
41%32%26%
1.2–0.8
Modeled xG
56%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 41 bookmakers1 2.45X 3.102 3.05
implied (vig removed): 39% · 30% · 31%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Parma
LLWLL
Form
Monza
LLLLW
L
Juventus2–0Away
L
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
