Serie ANot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
RomaDrawAtalanta
57%25%18%
1.9–1.1
Modeled xG
61%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 41 bookmakers1 1.72X 3.742 4.90
implied (vig removed): 55% · 25% · 19%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Roma
WWWWW
Form
Atalanta
WWWDD
W
Lecce0–4Away
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
