Serie ANot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
AtalantaDrawCagliari
56%26%18%
1.7–0.8
Modeled xG
55%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 30 bookmakers1 1.50X 4.102 6.50
implied (vig removed): 63% · 23% · 14%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Atalanta
WWWDD
Form
Cagliari
LWWWL
W
Home1–0Bologna
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
