Serie ANot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
GenoaDrawFrosinone
38%30%32%
1.3–0.9
Modeled xG
61%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 30 bookmakers1 1.77X 3.402 4.50
implied (vig removed): 52% · 27% · 21%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Genoa
LLLLD
Form
Frosinone
WLLWL
L
Lazio1–0Away
W
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
