Serie ANot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
LazioDrawAC Milan
41%29%29%
1.5–1.2
Modeled xG
61%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 27 bookmakers1 3.20X 3.102 2.25
implied (vig removed): 29% · 30% · 41%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Lazio
WWWLL
Form
AC Milan
WWLWL
W
Home1–0Genoa
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
