Serie ANot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
LecceDrawMonza
43%32%25%
1.0–0.8
Modeled xG
56%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 30 bookmakers1 2.20X 3.172 3.25
implied (vig removed): 42% · 29% · 29%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Lecce
LWWWL
Form
Monza
LLLLW
L
Home0–4Roma
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
