Serie ANot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
NapoliDrawBologna
49%28%23%
1.4–1.0
Modeled xG
61%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 30 bookmakers1 1.64X 3.672 5.40
implied (vig removed): 57% · 26% · 17%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Napoli
LWWWL
Form
Bologna
LLDWW
L
Home1–2Como
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
